Second Thoughts

Here's another mini-hypothesis I'll lay out. I have no proof of this; it's just speculative:

McCain will do better than the polls indicate.

I think there will be an effect that pollsters will miss: I'll call it the "second thoughts" effect.

I think that there will be a small minority of people who are claiming to vote for Obama who will wake up on Election Day and have second thoughts about that decision. They'll think about the dangerous world and the dangerous, tumultuous economy, and they'll think that McCain is the known quantity. They'll walk into the voting booth, and they'll check off their ballot (or their touch screen) for McCain.

If McCain had run a more disciplined campaign, projecting a more "calm man in a storm" type demeanor, I think he would do far better with this group of people. But I still think that there will be people who decide on Election Day that Barack Obama is too inexperienced, too... different to be their choice for president. I think that some of this will be racism, but I think that most of it will be a bit of fear about what "change" actually means. I think that the McCain's ads about Obama being different will have some resonance on Election Day, even if they haven't so far.

I also think that there is some resentment towards BOTH parties, not just a stunning rejection of the Republican brand. So the idea of one-party government may also play into these thought processes.

Part of me doesn't want to see Obama lose if he's up by 6 or 7 in the polls. It just won't reflect well on the country. And I'd much rather see McCain win it straight, not win it based on the last-minute fears and reservations of a group of voters.

My guess is that the small minority doesn't flip the election to McCain. But I think it will be closer than the standard projections seem.

My advice: hold onto your hats. I don't think this one is over yet.

Also: Is this an October surprise?

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D942EFR80&show_article=1