More Comment: a Powell Endorsement?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-odonnell/colin-powell-is-ready-to_b_134777.html

Thesis: Colin Powell's imminent endorsement of Obama would "hammer the final nail in the coffin of the Republican campaign to hold onto the White House."

Quick Analysis: False.

Deeper Analysis: This is really two separate arguments in one.

1. Colin Powell is about to endorse Barack Obama.
2. Colin Powell's endorsement would be the final nail in the coffin for McCain.

I can't speak to the first argument at all, honestly; I know nothing about what goes on in the mind of Colin Powell. The second argument, I find strained.

I think that endorsements in October don't have very much impact, in this day and age. It's not that people have all decided; not everyone has.

So, why won't Powell's endorsement matter that much?

- It's late in the campaign. A Colin Powell endorsement of Barack Obama a year ago would have made much more of an impact. Less daily political news of significance would keep the political news class talking about the endorsement through several news cycles. More critically, that kind of endorsement would lend gravitas and significance to an untested candidate like Obama. I'm sure that many voters in Iowa simply discounted Obama for lack of experience. A Powell endorsement might have given those people pause. But at this stage, I think that Obama has largely convinced the convince-able that he is "ready to lead."

- Endorsements at this level don't matter that much. I have no evidence for this statement, but I think that down-ticket endorsements are more likely to have an impact on a race than up-ticket endorsements. Meaning, if Barack Obama endorses a House candidate, that has a far larger impact than if that House candidate endorses Barack Obama. It's akin to the coattails effect. Remember, the president has the power of the pulpit, in addition to all the other powers that come with the office. No political figure in America has the same power, so it's hard to put too much stock into endorsements at this level.

- Colin Powell is no longer a celebrity. There was a time when Colin Powell was highly respected. Hell, there was a time (1996) where Powell would have been the first black president, if he had chosen to run. But he's perceived as largely ineffectual as Bush's SecState, and he's undoubtedly tied to the Iraq War. Powell has left the limelight, for better or worse. I don't think he has the muscle he once did.

As a final point, I think that a lot of the perception of any Powell endorsement of Obama would be one more focused on skin color than party or ideology or anything else. I don't think that benefits Obama at all.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Voting_for_Obama_anyway.html?showall

There's no real thesis to this. Just... sadness. This has been my great fear over the past few years: that people will turn away from individualism because it's easier if someone else makes decisions for you. I believe that individualism was a pillar of this country's development. I can't bear the sight of people running away from it.

Small sample size, of course, but I have feared this, and it appears to be coming to pass.

"I want the government to take over all of Wall Street and bankers and the car companies..."
"I'm sick of paying for health insurance at work."

It just makes me sick. More of a philosophical look at this in another post.