McCain's Veep...

For once, InTrade.com is pretty useless. I want to work through the various vice presidential options for John McCain and try to come up with something. The leading contract on InTrade for vice presidents? "Field," meaning, "None of the Above." So, to put my list together, I used various sources, including the InTrade.com list. There really is no favorite for the spot, now.

First off, what are the options for vice presidents?

1. Political confidant - This is a political friend, one who is trusted for advice and leadership. Vice presidents are sometimes just symbolic, and sometimes imperative. Cheney is the best example of this; if I'm not mistaken, he was put at the head of a committee to pick a VP nominee for Bush, and the committee settled on Cheney.
2. Primary rival - This one happens a lot, but it's not necessarily the case. Reagan picked GHW Bush; Kerry picked Edwards; JFK picked LBJ. This is part of the "healing process" of putting the party back together after a contentious nomination fight.
3. Swing state assistant - Vice presidential nominees are normally useful only for putting states in play that wouldn't normally be in play, or for giving your ticket an edge in a swing state. If McCain were to pick a Floridian as the VP, the Republicans might have a slightly better chance in Florida.
4. Demographic Trailblazer - Geraldine Ferraro was the VP candidate for the Dems in 1984, mostly because they needed something to bring some buzz to a floundering campaign. Reagan won easily, but Ferraro did make history.
5. Issue assistant - If a president is seen as having a weakness on a particular type of issue, nominating a specialist on that issue would help. Back in 1996, Bob Dole nominated Jack Kemp, hero of economic conservatives, because Dole did not have a spotless record on taxes and had faced criticism of his tax positions in previous elections.
6. "Hatchet man" - Spiro Agnew was known as "Nixon's Nixon," because Agnew was an extremely effective political attack dog. There are many different forms of this character.
7. "First alternate" - The vice president needs to be someone that people can see as president. Dan Quayle didn't qualify, once people learned how inept he was in certain ways. Al Gore certainly did.

Vice presidents can be any or all of these things at the same time. There are probably a few things I am missing completely in this evaluation, all open for debate.

Ideally, McCain needs a swing state assistant, in what looks to be a close election, an issue assistant on economics, and, potentially, a demographic trailblazer to counter the Democrats' nominating either the potential first woman or the first African American president. He also needs someone with an acceptable level of experience to assume the presidency in case of McCain needing to step aside for health reasons, but that person needs to be somewhat young and vibrant. He ALSO needs someone who will appeal to the conservative base that hates McCain so much. I don't think you can get all of these in a single package.

So, let's start looking for potential choices:

Charlie Crist (Governor, Florida)
Positives: Extremely well-liked in Florida, to the point where Florida would probably be more than a razor-thin win for Republicans. Will be 52 years old for the election, a full generation younger than McCain. Is probably the most likely person on this list to be president someday.
Negatives: Isn't really a conservative standard-bearer as much as part of the "post-partisan" movement. Liberal on environmental issues. Has repeatedly attacked the insurance industry. Not a trailblazer.
Prognosis: Would be a strong pick for swing state help. Might not want to attach himself to a campaign that might seriously flounder, particularly when his future prospects are so bright.

Mike Huckabee (Fmr. Governor, Arkansas)
Positives: Affable as hell; did you see him playing air hockey with Colbert the other night? Would net social conservative interest and evangelical vote.
Negatives: Vice presidents are heir apparents for the GOP; many people in the establishment are afraid of a President Huckabee. For a president who needs a VP strong on economics, Huck sure doesn't help, there.
Prognosis: The conservative establishment dislikes BOTH Huckabee and McCain, for their various sins. I would be very surprised if McCain went this route.

Mitt Romney (Fmr. Governor, Massachusetts)
Positives: Could bring in the talk radio folk. Ostensibly, a true conservative.
Negatives: It seems like these two guys hate each other. There was probably too much negativity in the campaign to make this work.
Prognosis: I would be extremely shocked if this happens.

Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State)
Positives: STILL has high approval ratings, seemingly the only one who has survived the Bush Administration. Conservative reputation. Intelligent, competent. "Trailblazer" thing again.
Negatives: Attached to the Bush Administration and could probably be attacked in various ways because of the lead up to the Iraq War. Foreign policy expertise overlaps with McCain.
Prognosis: Not going to happen.

Mark Sanford (Governor, South Carolina)
Positives: Adored by fiscal conservatives, part of the Gingrich Revolution of 1994. Left Congress after 3 terms. Younger than most of our parents (he's 47). Obvious conservative candidate and unifier.
Negatives: From South Carolina, which is a virtual guarantee for the GOP (unless most Republicans stay home). Voted in favor of campaign finance reform once, which is a negative for the conservative base.
Prognosis: I would put the smart money here. Sanford might not want a spot on the ticket, though; he had said he's not running for reelection, and, again, we don't know if he wants to be tied to a dying campaign.

Tim Pawlenty (Governor, Minnesota)
Positives: The convention is in Minnesota, and Pawlenty has absolutely been a vocal McCain supporter in this campaign. The same age as Sanford. Has refused to raise taxes to balance budgets. Socially conservative. Pretty staunchly opposed to illegal immigration. Would probably make conservatives happy. Might put traditionally-blue Minnesota in play.
Negatives: Staunch opposition to illegal immigration makes the ticket less friendly to the center. Is Minnesota really that important?
Prognosis: A safe choice, I think.

Phil Gramm (Fmr. Senator, Texas)
Positives: Economics guy, to the point where he's advising the McCain campaign on economics matters. Pretty extensive senatorial experience. Got out of Washington before things went to hell, in the public mind. Good experience in the Senate. Pretty staunch conservative.
Negatives: A bit old and stale. From Texas.
Prognosis: Likely Secretary of the Treasury in a McCain administration. Probably not getting up to VP, though.

Fred Thompson (Fmr. Senator, Tennessee)
Positives: Almost a "sinless" conservative, except for campaign finance reform, which he has said was a mistake. He was definitely the most acceptable conservative candidate in the race but rapidly lost viability once it all started. Close friend of McCain.
Negatives: Has potentially life-threatening condition (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma) which is apparently entirely non-life threatening, but we're looking at a presidential campaign where age and health will be significant issues, and I don't know if McCain wants to deal with that. Perceived lackluster campaign.
Prognosis: Most likely of the "big 5" candidates in the Republican race to get on the ticket (besides McCain). Still unlikely.

Sarah Palin (Governor, Alaska)
Positives: EXTRAORDINARILY high approval in her home state; she is extremely well-liked. Mostly conservative record.
Negatives: At 42, she's extremely young, and I find it hard to believe that people could picture her as president, sadly. Her record, overall, is successful but limited.
Prognosis: Interesting. Could be Dan Quayle II, or a JFK choice. I would love to see Palin broaden her horizons a bit and really form a political specialty. Palin needs more experience at her age; a senatorial term or a Cabinet post would help her a lot. I could definitely see Palin down the line, but half a term as governor of Alaska isn't really very much experience.

These are just a few of the names that I've been thinking about. Some things that are perceived as "positives" are really "negatives" and vice versa. I'm missing a pretty significant bunch of names... I might keep up on this theme if I find a few more names being kicked around. I would certainly suspect Sanford or Pawlenty or Crist over Huckabee, though.

[on edit]: On this list, I am certainly partial to Sanford. I like interesting stories, though, and Palin is certainly the most interesting of the bunch. More on her later.