Maryland Exit Polls

Political junkies love exit polls. They're like drugs, I think: it's a veritable high of information. The splits and splits on splits are extremely cool.

One of the ones that interests me in the Democratic primary is the "is the country read for..." question. I love the arrogance of the answer behind the question: "Yes, I believe that the country is 'ready for' an African-American president; we have 'grown up' enough, and I am impartial enough to make that observation," or "No, I do not believe that the country is 'ready for' an African-American president; we retain a certain degree of skepticism about race and bridging racial divides in this country."

The bottom line is that: no one really knows for sure. But still, the answers and the splits are interesting to me.

First off, CNN's exit poll for Maryland is available at http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MDDEM.

Now, there are two questions:

1. Is the US ready to elect a black president? (81% yes, 19% no)
2. Is the US ready to elect a woman president? (83% yes, 17% no)

Those percentages are awfully high for those pessimistic questions, and I imagine it's because of the field: it's a poll of highly-educated Democrats, for the most part. They're also optimistic about their chances this year because of the failures of the Bush Administration.

More interesting, though, is in how people vote:

Is the US ready to elect a black president?

	Yes (81%)	No (19%)
Clinton	33%	58%
Obama	63%	35%

Is the US ready to elect a woman president?

	Yes (83%)	No (17%)
Clinton	42%	21%
Obama	57%	64%

First off, there's a cause/effect relationship going on here. Are voters more likely to vote for a candidate because they believe that they can be elected, or are they more likely to believe that the candidate can be elected b/c they support them? I definitely lean towards the latter. The personal bias of "my candidate can break through" makes sense, because part of the reason we fervently support a particular candidate is because we perceive them as unique.

More interestingly, though, is the negativity of right around 20% of the voters. 17% of voters don't believe that Hillary Clinton can be elected (b/c of her gender), and yet 21% of those people will still vote for her! Likewise, 19% of voters don't think that Obama can be elected (b/c of his race), and yet, fully 35% of those people are going to vote for him!

I had a hard time figuring this out at first, but here's what I think: I think that most of the SAME people were pessimistic about the status of American prejudice on both issues. Those people (probably many academics, considering we're talking about Maryland) are operating with a "damned either way" mentality, so they just picked their preferences. My guess is that most of the 35% of the Obama voters who don't think the country is ready for him don't think that the country is ready for a woman president or a black president. Likewise, the 21% of Clinton voters who don't think the country is ready for her don't think that the country is ready for Obama, either.