McCain's Nascent Stump Speech

I think what we saw Tuesday night in Wisconsin was the beginnings of a stump speech for McCain. He retooled his message a bit, streamlining it for the general election. I wanted to go down the line and hash out what I think will be the core message for McCain going forward.

First off, the text of the speech:

McCain Feb. 19 Speech

And next, the outline of McCain's case for himself.

1. An historic moment: I've never heard of a presidential election being described as "unimportant," but in this particular year, there is a heavy focus on the historical implications of this election. McCain opens with this, a nod to the history being made around him.

2. "Eloquent but empty": Part 1 of the Barack Obama assault plan. McCain praises Obama for his ability to make speeches, but he quickly pivots into how the substance of those speeches is either lacking or just a rehash of standard liberal dogma.

3. "We live in a world of change": This is the McCain-ian equivalent to the "politics of fear" that people like to criticize Bush for practicing. McCain rattles off a litany of recent events in the international arena. He lists them with confidence, telling the voters that he knows about international affairs, and that no one is more qualified to manage them.

4. "The confused leadership of an inexperienced candidate": Part 2 of the Obama assault plan. McCain criticizes Obama for saying that he would possibly bomb Pakistan (an ally), and McCain criticizes Obama for supporting negotiations with Iran without "preconditions or clear purpose." Essentially, this builds off of point 3. McCain says, "compared to me, Obama is foolish and naive on foreign policy." McCain does well if the debate stays on foreign policy.

5. "Violent extremists who despise us": The 9/11 card, if you will. McCain lays out the threat: they are determined, effective, and driven by an apocalyptic zeal. How do we address this? Only by understanding the nature of the threat can the threat be handled: it requires military restructuring and the full force of American focus and determination.

6. "Rely on the common sense and values of the American people": This is the "I am not a liberal" argument. McCain is preaching that big government is a bad thing, even though that doctrine is growing a bit stale to many people (not me! I'm still here!). Still, he hits on some key points: free trade, school choice and accountability, tax simplification, private health care, and spending control.

7. I am a maverick: The second half of the McCain domestic agenda, of course, is where he differs from conservative convention. We might see campaign finance come back later in the campaign, as well as immigration reform, though both topics were ignored in this speech. He briefly hit upon alternative energy in the speech and the need to focus on it. This speech was still looking for conservatives, so we didn't see all of the agenda, I don't think.

8. Conclusion 1--"I am the most experienced": There's simply no other way to run this campaign. McCain is the warhorse. He's been around forever, and he's been in the federal government since Barack Obama was in college. He will be sure to focus on how he has also criticized the federal government while he was there. The freshness and dynamism of Obama cannot be topped. McCain can only hope to run his own angle on it.

9. Conclusion 2--"I owe America": With Michelle Obama under attack for her "proud of America" statement from a few days back, McCain can keep hitting on his own love for America and how he owes America far more than it could possibly owe him. McCain's patriotism cannot be questioned in middle America or anywhere; he was a freaking POW. Perhaps unfairly, Obama's patriotism will come into question (issues of flag pins, national anthems, and wife's statements are already surfacing). This is a winning issue for McCain, and it's a good way to end the speech.

I think the McCain stump speech this year will look a lot like this. It seems like it could be pretty effective, assuming Obama is the candidate. The speech will change significantly if Hillary Clinton surges back into frontrunner status.

McCain is fighting an uphill battle here. He can be tied to the president pretty closely, and the president is extremely unpopular. Republicans, in general, are extremely unpopular right now. It's very hard to hold the White House for 3 straight terms; it has happened once since 1952.

But if McCain is going to use this line of attack this year, I think he has a chance, and I think he'll keep it close.