Quick Political Post

It's kind of funny, but I could see the Republican race decided before the Democratic race, at this point. McCain's win tonight (thanks to Fred Thompson, interestingly) puts him in the driver's seat. A win in Florida, and McCain finally gets the elusive "momentum" to carry into the February 5th states.

And... the Northeast states (like CT, NJ, NY) have fairly moderate Republicans, who were all trending Giuliani way back in '07. They did a pretty smart thing: they changed their delegate-allocation rules to winner-take-all, to benefit Rudy. But if McCain wins Florida, a lot of Rudy's supporters are gonna go to McCain! They take from the same group of voters, for the most part. McCain could sweep those states, pick up a ton of delegates, become the delegate leader, and get the other candidates to withdraw.

InTrade seems to be in agreement. McCain is exploding right now:

McCain: 51.5
Romney: 23.2
Rudy: 17.4
Huckabee: 6.5
Paul: 1.5
Thompson: 0.8

He was at 35 at 7 PM.

Meanwhile, the Democratic campaign has developed into a racial confrontation. Although the issue has been swept aside, exit polling about the racial divide between the two candidates is instructive. And, assuming Obama wins South Carolina, they're going to be split pretty evenly come Super Tuesday.

So, my point: McCain could have the Republican nomination locked up by February 6. Obama and Hillary could split delegates, and then you have some issues there. And the chaotic Republican race would resolve itself before the relatively organized Democratic race.

I'm not predicting this or anything, but I think it's a distinct possibility.

But this has been a crazy cycle. If Romney or Rudy or Huckabee wins Florida, all bets are off.