The Giuliani Strategy and the Press

Here's a recent AP article:

Yahoo .com AP Article

Republican Rudy Giuliani challenged political convention in shrugging off early primaries while staking his presidential candidacy on delegate-rich, later-voting states, a strategy that could be a colossal failure or a masterful calculation.

I have a problem with this bit of analysis.

1. Rudy Giuliani initially spent a LOT of time in New Hampshire. Jay Cost took a look at this back in October and concluded the following:

Furthermore, from June 1 through August 31, Giuliani made eighteen campaign appearances in New Hampshire, twenty-six in Iowa, and six in South Carolina. By comparison, he made ten appearances in Florida, nine appearances in California, two in New York and one in New Jersey. His summer strategy emphasized the small, early states over the big, later ones by about 2:1.

2. Learning that he did not achieve much traction in those states as time went on, Rudy went where he was strongest: the February 5th states and Florida.

So, he adopted a different strategy, and the media is talking about it. What's wrong with that?

What bothers me is the "colossal failure"/"masterful calculation" dichotomy. Let's be clear: Rudy Giuliani could never coast to a Republican nomination. Why? He's a New Yorker, culturally, which is out of step with the Republican base. He's pro-choice, to the point where he has donated to Planned Parenthood. He's not very openly religious. There are pictures of him dressed in drag. He has had three wives, and I think that one of his wives found out about their impending divorce in a press conference.

It's not a colossal failure if he loses, because really, Rudy never had much of a chance in Iowa. He couldn't really win South Carolina, even if the polls said he could way back in April (Rudy and McCain were the only two well-known candidates then, and McCain was floundering). Rudy's ONLY real hope at any point was the fragmentation strategy (or the "alternative to a bad candidate" one). So far, it's working OK: three major primaries/caucuses, three different winners. Rudy has to be happy about that. Florida's coming pretty soon... and there's no one with much momentum. He still has a shot. Check out InTrade.com's numbers:

McCain: 39.6
Rudy: 19.8
Romney: 19.0
Huckles: 13.5
Thompson: 2.9
Paul: 2.1

So really, if it fails, the strategy should not be blamed. From where I sit, the strategy was optimal. No, a loss should be blamed on two things: Rudy's inability to find a message somewhere beyond "9/11" and "in New York City..."; and the Republican electorate who opposes him.