InTrade Update

Dems

Hillary - 61.5
Obama - 38.3
Edwards - 1.0

Obama hopped up about 8 points on the heels of his huge win in South Carolina over the past couple of days. This makes sense, I think. Obama didn't just win South Carolina; he dominated in South Carolina. Investors, you would think, are wondering about "momentum," and some think that this could carry over, a little bit, into Super Duper Tuesday next week. I picked Obama to win the nomination because I figured he'd carry Nevada, but I was wrong about that. Thus, Hillary is still the favorite. I wouldn't crown her yet, though. I think these figures make sense.

Republicans

McCain - 55.1
Romney - 32.5
Rudy - 6.6
Huckles - 2.8
Paul - 1.6

A few different things here (worthy of a list, even):

- Rudy is hemmorhaging support. I think it's because it is looking increasingly unlikely that he will win Florida, based on McCain's myriad of endorsements, Thompson's withdrawal, and Romney's recent poll surge. Third place in Florida for Rudy would be a disaster. Still, Rudy may surprise; people can vote early in Florida, so he might have already banked some votes. I doubt this, but it's a factor. He was at 16 or 17 a week ago. This is pretty dramatic in such a fractured field.
- Romney, on the other hand, is surging. Not sure why. Probably people banking on the Fredheads heading that way. He hit his overall peak (37!) a couple of days ago.
- McCain is the clear frontrunner.

So, what happens if each candidate wins?

1. McCain wins: McCain has a big Super Tuesday, taking the Winner-take-all states in the Northeast and doing really well in the West. He wins the nomination, provided that the Republican old guard doesn't do anything to work against him.
2. Romney wins: it's a two-person race. McCain and Romney duke it out on Super Tuesday, and it becomes a delegate battle.
3. Rudy wins: Media praises Rudy for his bold strategy to excess; Rudy rebounds in polls in Northeastern winner-take-all states. McCain in a bit of trouble.
4. Huckabee wins: Rudy out. Romney tanks but probably hangs around for a few more days, through until Super Tuesday. McCain might gather the Republican guard on his side; Huckabee seems to scare people more than McCain.

Funny: I picked Rudy/Huckabee as the big two at the end. It looks like McCain/Romney is the most likely big two. It's easy to be a pundit, huh; just make random statements and refuse to be held to them.

But in all seriousness, I did not think that McCain, in a million years, could take South Carolina. I also didn't think that Romney would be so dedicated to this race, even after his "early state strategy' didn't do much for him. He gets assistance from the talk radio guys, for whatever reason. They should have supported Fred Thompson more avidly when they had the chance.

As far as the GOP nominees go, I am still leaning McCain, and I will not vote in the primaries for Romney. The general election is different. I like Romney's record enough to give him consideration at that point. The refashioning has to stop now, though. No more of this crap.