Primary Endorsement: John McCain

Start out with the obvious: there are four candidates for the Republican nomination. They are John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul.

Now, the next: two of those candidates have a legitimate shot. Two are just sort of hanging around.

Out of the four, I like things about each candidate:

- I like Romney's management experience and his new "Washington outsider" message. He claims to be able to fix problems. I think that this is the message he should have worked the ENTIRE time. A lot of Republicans think the Bush administration was incompetent, too.
- I like John McCain's foreign policy expertise and his distaste for government spending.
- I like Ron Paul's understanding of the economy and his support for limited government.
- I think Mike Huckabee is funny (I'm grasping at straws, here). The national sales tax is intriguing.

Of course, there are things I dislike about all of them, as well:

- I hate that I don't know what I would get if I voted for Romney. His blatant pander to the Michigan automakers was enough for me; he's no free-marketeer if he wants that kind of a bailout.
- I hate that John McCain has a way of belitting things he disagrees with. He called the pharmaceutical companies "bad guys," and he criticized Romney off-handedly for being in a business where he "fired people." At his core, McCain is a little bit hostile to business. It upsets me.
- I hate that Ron Paul is an unrealistic idealist whose failure to compromise on ANYTHING has marginalized him thoroughly. I also hate that he opposes the Civil War and has no historical understanding of the period.
- I hate that Mike Huckabee openly pushes religion in everything, right down to his view of the constitution. Huckabee is why people fear the mix of church and state. Those (like me) who think that religion can have a place in public life should oppose Huckabee as strongly as we can, in unity with the ACLU. Lines have to be drawn.

For all of this, I find John McCain to be a strong candidate. He is not my ideal candidate, but he is a good one, and he is one that I could vote for with pride.

I am taken in by his hardline anti-torture position, in addition to his insistence that Washington "changed" the Gingrich Revolutionaries rather than the other way around. I also liked the way he told Michiganites that the auto manufacturing jobs weren't coming back. Although he's a skeptic about low taxes, I think, he has moved in that direction over the past eight years. His stated reasons for opposing the tax cuts, which were that there weren't corresponding spending cuts, I sympathize with.

I have moved away from McCain's position on campaign finance, but I understand the ideology from where it comes.

More practically, his "straight talk," as he calls it, will play well in an environment particularly hostile to Republicans. There is simply no right for the Republicans to win this year, not after the years of low approval ratings that Bush has gone through. But McCain matches up really well with Hillary, I think. He also could hammer Obama on inexperience. No other Republican would have either luxury.

I wouldn't predict a McCain win at this point, but I would certainly predict a Romney loss.

Again, McCain is not my ideal candidate. But then again, I have never seen my ideal candidate run for public office, and Romney, Paul, or Huckabee certainly don't qualify as better. In this world, McCain is more than sufficient.

I cast my absentee ballot in the NJ primary for John McCain.

McCain Wins Florida

Intrade going insane!

Republicans

McCain - 80.6
Romney - 14.0
Paul - 1.4
Huckabee - 1.2
Rudy - 1.0

McCain was hovering around 60 this morning. Investors are putting a lot of stock into this win, which was pretty substantial in the end. I hear Rudy is dropping out and going to endorse McCain. McCain will win BIG in the Northeastern states next week.

And, guess what? The Republicans may have this thing settled before the Democrats, assuming that the right can't be mobilized, somehow, against McCain. Yet another wrinkle in an extremely weird year.

Democrats

Clinton - 64.0
Obama - 36.0

InTrade Update

Dems

Hillary - 61.5
Obama - 38.3
Edwards - 1.0

Obama hopped up about 8 points on the heels of his huge win in South Carolina over the past couple of days. This makes sense, I think. Obama didn't just win South Carolina; he dominated in South Carolina. Investors, you would think, are wondering about "momentum," and some think that this could carry over, a little bit, into Super Duper Tuesday next week. I picked Obama to win the nomination because I figured he'd carry Nevada, but I was wrong about that. Thus, Hillary is still the favorite. I wouldn't crown her yet, though. I think these figures make sense.

Republicans

McCain - 55.1
Romney - 32.5
Rudy - 6.6
Huckles - 2.8
Paul - 1.6

A few different things here (worthy of a list, even):

- Rudy is hemmorhaging support. I think it's because it is looking increasingly unlikely that he will win Florida, based on McCain's myriad of endorsements, Thompson's withdrawal, and Romney's recent poll surge. Third place in Florida for Rudy would be a disaster. Still, Rudy may surprise; people can vote early in Florida, so he might have already banked some votes. I doubt this, but it's a factor. He was at 16 or 17 a week ago. This is pretty dramatic in such a fractured field.
- Romney, on the other hand, is surging. Not sure why. Probably people banking on the Fredheads heading that way. He hit his overall peak (37!) a couple of days ago.
- McCain is the clear frontrunner.

So, what happens if each candidate wins?

1. McCain wins: McCain has a big Super Tuesday, taking the Winner-take-all states in the Northeast and doing really well in the West. He wins the nomination, provided that the Republican old guard doesn't do anything to work against him.
2. Romney wins: it's a two-person race. McCain and Romney duke it out on Super Tuesday, and it becomes a delegate battle.
3. Rudy wins: Media praises Rudy for his bold strategy to excess; Rudy rebounds in polls in Northeastern winner-take-all states. McCain in a bit of trouble.
4. Huckabee wins: Rudy out. Romney tanks but probably hangs around for a few more days, through until Super Tuesday. McCain might gather the Republican guard on his side; Huckabee seems to scare people more than McCain.

Funny: I picked Rudy/Huckabee as the big two at the end. It looks like McCain/Romney is the most likely big two. It's easy to be a pundit, huh; just make random statements and refuse to be held to them.

But in all seriousness, I did not think that McCain, in a million years, could take South Carolina. I also didn't think that Romney would be so dedicated to this race, even after his "early state strategy' didn't do much for him. He gets assistance from the talk radio guys, for whatever reason. They should have supported Fred Thompson more avidly when they had the chance.

As far as the GOP nominees go, I am still leaning McCain, and I will not vote in the primaries for Romney. The general election is different. I like Romney's record enough to give him consideration at that point. The refashioning has to stop now, though. No more of this crap.

I don't believe in conspiracies, but...

I do believe in rational actors. And I know that Democrats and liberals can read polls, and I know that John McCain right now is the only Republican who seems like he has a credible chance to beat Obama or Hillary in November.

So, I ask: when the New York Times endorses McCain, and then Bill Clinton says, "She and John McCain are very close. They always laugh that if they wound up being the nominees of their party, it would be the most civilized election in American history, and they're afraid they'd put the voters to sleep because they like and respect each other," what does that signify?

This is not me being a booster for McCain. If I were working for the Democrats, I would absolutely praise the hell out of McCain, particularly with a bunch of closed primaries up ahead. Because that WILL sap some of his support. This isn't a conspiracy, I don't think; it's the product of rational actors understanding their influence and sway.

Quick Political Post

It's kind of funny, but I could see the Republican race decided before the Democratic race, at this point. McCain's win tonight (thanks to Fred Thompson, interestingly) puts him in the driver's seat. A win in Florida, and McCain finally gets the elusive "momentum" to carry into the February 5th states.

And... the Northeast states (like CT, NJ, NY) have fairly moderate Republicans, who were all trending Giuliani way back in '07. They did a pretty smart thing: they changed their delegate-allocation rules to winner-take-all, to benefit Rudy. But if McCain wins Florida, a lot of Rudy's supporters are gonna go to McCain! They take from the same group of voters, for the most part. McCain could sweep those states, pick up a ton of delegates, become the delegate leader, and get the other candidates to withdraw.

InTrade seems to be in agreement. McCain is exploding right now:

McCain: 51.5
Romney: 23.2
Rudy: 17.4
Huckabee: 6.5
Paul: 1.5
Thompson: 0.8

He was at 35 at 7 PM.

Meanwhile, the Democratic campaign has developed into a racial confrontation. Although the issue has been swept aside, exit polling about the racial divide between the two candidates is instructive. And, assuming Obama wins South Carolina, they're going to be split pretty evenly come Super Tuesday.

So, my point: McCain could have the Republican nomination locked up by February 6. Obama and Hillary could split delegates, and then you have some issues there. And the chaotic Republican race would resolve itself before the relatively organized Democratic race.

I'm not predicting this or anything, but I think it's a distinct possibility.

But this has been a crazy cycle. If Romney or Rudy or Huckabee wins Florida, all bets are off.

The Giuliani Strategy and the Press

Here's a recent AP article:

Yahoo .com AP Article

Republican Rudy Giuliani challenged political convention in shrugging off early primaries while staking his presidential candidacy on delegate-rich, later-voting states, a strategy that could be a colossal failure or a masterful calculation.

I have a problem with this bit of analysis.

1. Rudy Giuliani initially spent a LOT of time in New Hampshire. Jay Cost took a look at this back in October and concluded the following:

Furthermore, from June 1 through August 31, Giuliani made eighteen campaign appearances in New Hampshire, twenty-six in Iowa, and six in South Carolina. By comparison, he made ten appearances in Florida, nine appearances in California, two in New York and one in New Jersey. His summer strategy emphasized the small, early states over the big, later ones by about 2:1.

2. Learning that he did not achieve much traction in those states as time went on, Rudy went where he was strongest: the February 5th states and Florida.

So, he adopted a different strategy, and the media is talking about it. What's wrong with that?

What bothers me is the "colossal failure"/"masterful calculation" dichotomy. Let's be clear: Rudy Giuliani could never coast to a Republican nomination. Why? He's a New Yorker, culturally, which is out of step with the Republican base. He's pro-choice, to the point where he has donated to Planned Parenthood. He's not very openly religious. There are pictures of him dressed in drag. He has had three wives, and I think that one of his wives found out about their impending divorce in a press conference.

It's not a colossal failure if he loses, because really, Rudy never had much of a chance in Iowa. He couldn't really win South Carolina, even if the polls said he could way back in April (Rudy and McCain were the only two well-known candidates then, and McCain was floundering). Rudy's ONLY real hope at any point was the fragmentation strategy (or the "alternative to a bad candidate" one). So far, it's working OK: three major primaries/caucuses, three different winners. Rudy has to be happy about that. Florida's coming pretty soon... and there's no one with much momentum. He still has a shot. Check out InTrade.com's numbers:

McCain: 39.6
Rudy: 19.8
Romney: 19.0
Huckles: 13.5
Thompson: 2.9
Paul: 2.1

So really, if it fails, the strategy should not be blamed. From where I sit, the strategy was optimal. No, a loss should be blamed on two things: Rudy's inability to find a message somewhere beyond "9/11" and "in New York City..."; and the Republican electorate who opposes him.