Palin?

The pick: Sarah Palin.

I have been intrigued by Sarah Palin since I learned about her 90% approval rating in Alaska. But I didn't think she'd get picked. I even sent the guy who runs the Draft Palin blog an email way back in February:

Hey,

First off, I'd like to say that I enjoy your blog a lot. I am a little concerned about the "experience" angle on Palin being on the VP ticket, particularly with McCain. Because of his age, voters will be worried that McCain might have medical problems that would necessitate the VP assuming the presidency. Palin's experience is somewhat limited, and it might be an issue.

I do, however, find Palin to be an interesting candidate and politician. My suggestion would be: if Palin does not get a spot on the ticket, advocate strongly for a prime-time speaking spot at the convention. Obama delivered the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004, and it's one of the reasons that he came to national prominence and emerged as a serious contender in '08. If Palin delivered a strong speech advocating limited government, markets, and ethics, I think that might be really positive for her future political career.

Thanks for your time!

- Dan

Little did I know.

I have mixed feelings on the pick:

1. How do you squelch a speech's media coverage? Make a gutsy, gutsy VP pick. All of a sudden, Palin is the story. Romney, Pawlenty, Kascish, whoever else, none would bring the buzz of the attractive mid-40s mother from Alaska with five kids.

2. This is a play for the disillusioned Hillary voters. Palin will set out to win them over.

3. Great job on the rollout by McCain. Kept it coming all week, but no hype, really.

4. This is a colossal risk for Palin herself, politically. If she runs a good campaign, Palin is the frontrunner for the 2012 or 2016 GOP nomination. If Barack Obama's national coming out party was his convention speech in 2004, Palin's ideally is her debate against Joe Biden.

5. What does Biden do, now? Can he really attack her in the debate? The imagery wouldn't look good, certainly.

6. Palin seems to me an awful lot like a process of elimination pick. The housing gaffe eliminated wealth, Hillary not being chosen made a woman a better pick than a man, Obama's big speech means that boredom won't cut it, etc.

7. Obvious statement, but it's worth saying: we are now assured a demographics milestone in the White House: either the first black president, or the first woman vice president. It's a lot like the groundbreaking Super Bowl XLI: a black coach (Dungy or Lovie Smith) was guaranteed to break down that barrier.

8. Pat Buchanan commented, "Biggest political gamble I believe just about in American political history...that is not hyberbole. I can think of no choice of VP that approaches this." I think that it's a huge gamble, indeed, but I also think that McCain knows that the odds are stacked against him anyway. When you don't have much to lose, gambling big isn't necessarily a bad play.

In the end, it'll come down to the speech on Wednesday, and the debate with Biden. If Palin does both well, she may well be a Republican staple for the next 2 decades. If not, well, she may be able to reinvent herself within this generation.

In either case, I remain utterly fascinated by this campaign.