It continues. This was a comment on a friend's blog, who finds the Palin pick to be politically clever but ultimately showing a lack of judgment for McCain:
I have been waffling on Palin all day. For what it's worth, I think she gave an excellent speech this afternoon.
A few questions I'll pose, then, mostly to help me clarify my own thoughts. Anyone is welcome to contribute, and I'll offer my own answers as well.
1. How many years as vice president will Sarah Palin need to be a viable president?
I think that one term as vice president would certainly be enough experience to be president, current levels of inexperience be damned. A term and a half governor would be qualified, I think, to run for the presidency without having to battle too many questions about inexperience.
So, throw a scenario out there: McCain becomes president for a term and a half and is forced to resign after an ethics scandal or a health issue. Palin, by that point, is quite clearly qualified to be president; the vice presidency is valid experience. Quayle's political disappearance following the '92 election was not for lack of experience, but for a perception of incompetence. My impressions of Palin indicate to me that she won't be incompetent.
I'm not sure what the experience threshold is, thinking about it. But for shits and giggles, I'll throw 3 years out there, as a number. By January 2012, Palin will pass an "experience threshold." Is it reasonable for McCain to trust Palin for on-the-job training for three years? I think that leads to my second question...
2. Is John McCain less concerned about his health than I am?
This'll be my first of two "West Wing" (TV) references in this discussion. When discussing removing his highly experience and qualified VP from the ticket in favor of more of a question mark, the relapsing-remitting MS-stricken president wrote four words on a piece of paper expressing his opposition to the plan: "Because I could die."
If McCain were concerned about his own health to any real degree, he absolutely would not have picked Palin. It does, I think, call into question his judgment.
With that said, perhaps McCain is quite confident in his belief that he can survive at least ONE term, maybe being forced into a resignation midway through his second term. By then, Palin would have passed some sort of experience threshold.
3. Does Palin actually bring something to the table, as far as governance goes?
I think she does. While the experience is limited, she brings a strong ethical background and an expertise on the oil issue. I doubt there are many politicians out there right now with a stronger background in energy politics, particularly after serving as Ethics Commissioner of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.
Her role in governance may be quite limited, but I wouldn't discount it entirely.
4. So, why Palin? Is it solely political/demographic?
Second West Wing reference of the post-- somewhere in the first season, the president's chief of staff came up with a new motto: "Let Bartlet be Bartlet." I think that there's a bit of "Let McCain Be McCain" in the pick. John McCain hates being conventional, I think, and relishes his role as a maverick (even if he has largely campaigned away from that image). He also likes to define himself as a strong opponent of pork, even when it's in his own party. The "Bridge to Nowhere" was the strongest example of excessive Republican pork barrel spending. Palin, as governor of Alaska, actually REJECTED the funding for the bridge. I would imagine it's rather rare to see state governors reject federal funding. My guess is that McCain first learned about Palin at this stage and found her intriguing.
And really, McCain was really in his element today. He was making a case that's awfully difficult to make, and he seemed to be relishing it.
5. The elephant in the room, as you addressed: if Palin is stunningly underqualified for the presidency at this stage (I agree with your terminlogy of "her lack of any substantive experience"), then how can Obama not be stunningly underqualified for the presidency himself? Where is Obama's substantive experience?
Obama's best experience right now is in campaigning for the presidency. He's a great speaker, but really, state legislative experience can't be worth much more than mayoral experience, and I don't buy the argument that his legislative district was bigger than Palin's town. And, while Obama has been in the Senate for longer than Palin has been governor, Obama has been campaigning for the presidency for almost half his term.
To me, the argument that McCain's judgment can be called into question for picking his running mate is valid. But I think that it highlights the poor judgment that Obama may well have exhibited in running for the presidency himself.
In the end, there's something of a Faustian bargain made here. A McCain-Pawlenty ticket would lose, I think. A McCain-Palin ticket is a gamble, but if she holds her own in the veep debate and makes a great speech next week, she may well be his best bet electorally. So, basically, to prevent an underqualified candidate from the post, he must work with an underqualified candidate, and potentially allow an underqualified candidate to get the post anyway. It's a tough call to make.
But I think it goes back to what I would speculate to be a cocksure attitude about his own health. The puzzle pieces fit if McCain thinks he'll be viable for at least a full term.
So, for me, I continue to have mixed feelings. I definitely think the pick was politically clever, even though I discounted it as too far fetched to be worth considering in any great detail a while ago. From the standpoint of governance, I don't find it quite as poor as you do, but I can see your arguments.
For the Democrats? I think that they are no longer the "actors" in a campaign against Palin. They can only react to Palin's own mistakes. If Palin does a great job and is relatively mistake-free, she's tough to attack, because of the relative corner that they've painted themselves into with the Obama nomination. Again, I find the debate critical. If Palin comes across as a novice, then the knives can come out. But until then, they have to wait and keep hammering McCain as a Bush clone... but McCain has done a solid job moving away from the Bush legacy with this pick.
In the end, it's fascinating. As I've said before, the political system would be more fun if it didn't matter quite so much. :P
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