InTrade.com has updated with some new contracts! This is probably the best way to handicap these selection processes. Here's a ranked list of potential Obama VP selections; I've ranked them simply by the price of the most recent sale of their contract, taking anyone who has sold at 5 or greater:
As of Tuesday, 6/24, 5 PM:
Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) - 22.0
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) - 12.0
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) - 11.4
Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 11.0
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) - 8.5
Gov. Ed. Rendell (D-PA) - 7.7
Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark - 6.9
Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA) - 6.3
Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) - 6.0
Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) - 5.1
Fmr. VP Al Gore (D-TN) - 5.0
Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 5.0
Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) - 5.0
Personally, I would be very surprised if either Webb or Hagel gets the spot. Hagel is a shrewd pick, but he's a Republican, and Obama would be infuriating a very active base by picking him. Hagel is a pretty strong conservative, except on the war. Webb, to me, is too much of a neophyte. He would help in Virginia, certainly, but between the two of them, you would have fewer than six years of federal experience. Webb would have been a perfect pick for Hillary, if she had not wanted Obama. With that in mind, I don't like the top two.
Sam Nunn, to me,
seems like a joke. He's on the "list" every time; my feeling is that someone in the Obama campaign has a good sense of humor.
Richardson, Biden, and Clark all add some experience and gravitas to an Obama ticket. Sebelius is a popular governor in Kansas and also fits quite well. Evan Bayh would be interesting as well, though he was an ardent Clinton supporter during the primary campaign.
The InTrade GOP list is significantly shorter.
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) - 20.0
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) - 17.8
Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) - 15.8
Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) - 11.3
Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) - 10.7
Gov. Bobby Jindal (D-LA) - 10.0
Fmr. Dir. of OMB Rob Portman (R-OH) - 6.8
Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) - 6.0
Carly Fiorina - 5.0
Investors seem to be skeptical of all the Pawlenty buzz. He's heavily talked up, but he's no higher than Jim Webb. Romney and Huckabee both show strongly here, with both, I'm sure, angling for a spot on the ticket. Crist is very popular but could probably stand to stay in office for a full term; 2012 is probably in the offing for him. Same with Sarah Palin, who is like Crist, but on the opposite side of the country, and significantly more popular. Jindal fits that, too. Pawlenty, Jindal, Palin, and Crist will all be talked up over the next few years. They are the next generation of GOP leaders.
I would be amused by McCain/Lieberman and Obama/Hagel, which would clearly signal that both sides want to put the war front and center (though my guess is that Obama would rather not, at this point). McCain/Fiorina is interesting, though: she's a major outsider and a business leader. It would be unorthodox, but perhaps that's Mac's style.
The VP pick is far less for show than it was even twenty years ago. Gore and Cheney were both powerful figures in government, and both McCain and Obama have issues as candidates that could be mitigated by good VP picks. In other words, I'll keep watching this.
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3 comments:
How can Sam Nunn belong to a restricted club and be the chief sponsor of the 'don't ask. don't tell' legislation and then expect to be brought onto the ticket with a candidate who is trying to bring the country together? It just does not make sense. Obama cannot afford to offend women or gays at this point in the game.
Mac Pick Sarah Palin Veep BEFORE Hil Campaigns w/Obama!
In addition to her overwhelming attraction on the oil/energy issue and the female/disaffected Hillary voters, her human interest story will generate millions and millions of dollars worth of publicity and media coverage — essentially free to the McCain campaign — more than offsetting Obama’s reported money advantage.
It will be interesting to see who the two VP picks will be. In part I think it will depend on how the summer goes for the campaigns and what they see to be their weak points that need strengthening.
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