This is an interesting one. To get this, the following things have to happen:
1. Obama has to fail to resonate in Ohio.
2. Michigan Democrats have to be alienated by the DNC's gaffes there earlier in the year.
3. McCain has to continue to be popular in New Hampshire.
4. Virginia has to stay with the GOP.
5. And, the weirdest one: Obama has to win the popular vote in the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District.
Nebraska allocates its electoral votes strangely: the overall popular vote winner gets two votes, and the remaining three are allocated based on the popular vote totals in each district. The Nebraska 2nd is, essentially, Greater Omaha. Obama could win that district, siphoning off one of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes.
The split would be as follows:
| OBAMA - 269 | MCCAIN - 269 |
| California - 55 | Alabama - 9 |
| Colorado - 9 | Alaska - 3 |
| Connecticut - 7 | Arizona - 10 |
| DC - 3 | Arkansas - 6 |
| Delaware - 3 | Florida - 27 |
| Hawaii - 4 | Georgia - 15 |
| Illinois - 21 | Idaho - 4 |
| Iowa - 7 | Indiana - 11 |
| Maine - 4 | Kansas - 6 |
| Maryland - 10 | Kentucky - 8 |
| Massachusetts - 12 | Louisiana - 9 |
| Minnesota - 10 | Michigan - 17 |
| Missouri - 11 | Mississippi - 6 |
| Nebraska - 1 | Montana - 3 |
| Nevada - 5 | Nebraska - 4 |
| New Jersey - 15 | New Hampshire - 4 |
| New Mexico - 5 | North Carolina - 15 |
| New York - 31 | North Dakota - 3 |
| Oregon - 7 | Ohio - 20 |
| Pennsylvania - 21 | Oklahoma - 7 |
| Rhode Island - 4 | South Carolina - 8 |
| Vermont - 3 | South Dakota - 3 |
| Washington - 11 | Tennessee - 11 |
| Wisconsin - 10 | Texas - 34 |
| Utah - 5 | |
| Virginia - 13 | |
| West Virginia - 5 | |
| Wyoming - 3 |
Of course, a 269-269 split would be thrown into the House, with each state delegation getting one vote. THAT would be cool.
1 comment:
Complicated electoral math could be on its way out, along with the current reality that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide, and candidates concentrating their attention on only a handful of closely divided "battleground" states.
Two-thirds of the visits and money are focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money goes to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people are merely spectators to the presidential election. Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule under which all of a state's electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The bill would make every vote politically relevant in a presidential election. It would make every vote equal.
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 19 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
see www.NationalPopularVote.com
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