Potential GOP 2012

Note: I wrote this back in October.

I'll even handicap them this year. These are arbitrary.

The Front-Runners: these are the candidates that I think have the clearest chance to win the Republican nomination, assuming they throw their hat in the ring.

Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)
Gen. David Petraeus (NY)
Gov. Sarah Palin (AK)
Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR)

Worth Watching: these are the "second-tier front runners," of sorts; they are worthy of greater notice than being in the general pool, because of national exposure, reputation, perceived political skill, and/or popularity.

Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (MN)
Gov. Charlie Crist (FL)
Fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush (FL)
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (CA)
Gov. Mark Sanford (SC)

The Eligible Pool: This is the pool where I try to cover everyone I can possibly think of. (I doubt I would have put Obama in a pool like this in '04, but I'll try to learn empirically.) Analytically, my hope is that SOMEWHERE in this blog entry lies the GOP's nominee for president in 2012. There's not much to say about these candidates, other than that they are plausible picks for the 2012 nomination.

Gov. Bob Riley (AL)
Gov. Rick Perry (TX)
Gov. Haley Barbour (LA)
Gov. John Huntsman, Jr. (UT)
Gov. Mitch Daniels (IN)
Sen. John Thune (SD)
Sen. Mitch McConnell (KY)
Fmr. Sen. John Sununu (NH)
Fmr. Sen. Wayne Allard (CO)
Fmr. Sen. Bill Frist (TN)
Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum (PA)
Fmr. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (GA)

(MORE TO COME)

Congressional Dark Horses: It's VERY rare for a president to come directly from the House (I think only James Garfield did it), but these two are interesting enough that they might be worth watching. Put them on the back-burner.

Rep. Eric Cantor (VA)
Rep. Paul Ryan (WI)

Although his convention speech was an embarrassment, Mitt Romney built up a sizeable base of support during the 2008 nominating cycle, and he has served as a good party soldier for John McCain in this election. Also, assuming that economic growth is stagnant, Romney may be able to win with the "I know how to create jobs" angle. Still, he comes across as a bit of a used car salesman at times, and, for the love of God, no one knows what he really stands for. He also may be passed by the younger generation of conservative Republicans. I find him to be perhaps the least plausible of the Big 4.

Republicans practically begged Dwight Eisenhower to run for office in 1952; they had been out of power for 20 years and thought that they were dying as a party. General David Petraeus may fill that same void. He is well-respected and may be to Obama what Colin Powell could have been to Bill Clinton: the general-turned-politician who ran circles around the sitting president. No one could question his seriousness, his talent, his knowledge, etc. And I get the feeling that some of the younger Republicans might defer to Petraeus' wisdom and simply bow out of the process early (trying to get on that ticket and position themselves for the future). But we don't know his opinions on social issues, and whether or not those views would be palatable to the base. If Petraeus starts angling, believe in it. It's VERY hard to control this process, and randomness plays a large role. But out of all the candidates I will discuss, Petraeus has the highest level of control over his chances.

Since exploding onto the scene a few months ago, Sarah Palin has been a lightning rod. The Left has demonized her. The Right has adored her. The media has scrutinized her as strongly as anyone I've ever seen. A full term as governor of Alaska (and, of course, reelection) would help blunt the experience charges. Palin would also have the benefit of being able to piggyback on any Obama success as proof that she has worthy experience. Palin needs to be a bit more cerebral, and she needs to be more comfortable in a one-on-one interview session. But she can repaint herself in a bunch of ways. Palin's not going away anytime soon, though I could see her skipping 2012. She may be the main reason why Romney's stock is far lower than it was in April. Palin already has name recoginition, and the Rush Limbaugh "Babies, guns, Jesus" endorsement. It's tough to imagine the conservative base picking Romney when Palin is an option.

Mike Huckabee started with absolutely no name recognition at all in 2007. One year later, he won big in Iowa and, with a bit of luck, may have battled for the nomination far more strongly than he did (try to counterfactually picture things if McCain hadn't won New Hampshire). The key for Huckabee is to expand past his Evangelical base. Huckabee can spend time consorting with the Club for Growth Republicans, saying he's found religion on low taxes, and he can preach the virtues of small government (which he did to great effect in his convention speech). Sheer "force of personality," as someone put it, would make him competitive in an election. And he's got a head-start this time. He could win Iowa much more solidly in 2012. He's strongly positioned.

If Palin does flame out, Bobby Jindal will be well-positioned to take the baton. He's proven himself to be a strong governor, attacking corruption in Louisiana's government, while doing an excellent job with hurricane preparedness. He's as conservative as can be, and he's smart as anyone--he's a Rhodes scholar. He'll be 41 in 2012... with a full term as a state governor under his belt. He's also an Indian-American Catholic, which I think actually helps him against Obama. He wouldn't lose the minority of racist Republicans to a white Democrat; he leaves them no other option. Jindal seems like the PERFECT VP for just about any Republican in 2012. But if you asked me about Obama at this time in 2004, I would have said that exact same sentence. Jindal may run to get on the ticket, or he may run to win the nomination. And he may win.

A commenter on a website said that "Tim Pawlenty's only chance to be president is if he gets to be VP first," and I sympathize with that. His "Sam's Club Republican" brand isn't particularly contagious or strong. He's an effective governor, but he comes across as bland or boring whenever I see him on TV. We're in an age of political rock stars, it seems, and the GOP has a slew to choose from: Crist, Jindal, Palin, among others. Pawlenty makes sense on a ticket if the Inland North keeps trending right, but it's just hard to imagine Pawlenty winning in a field with Jindal or Palin or Petraeus. He may be in 2012 what he was in 2008--a very safe VP choice. Safe might make more sense in 2012.

The "gay" rumors aside, Charlie Crist is an effective governor from an important state. I'm having trouble picturing his personality winning in Iowa, but he may be able to take New Hampshire and build momentum from there. Or hell, the whole nominating system might be different by then. He also looks presidential.

Jeb Bush and Condoleezza Rice face the same problem: Bush. Both are quite competent in their own fields; Jeb was one of the country's best governors is his time, and Condi is a brilliant foreign policy thinker and very capable leader in her own right. But the Democrats campaigned against Herbert Hoover for decades, and if GWB is remembered that way, the GOP will have to work to distance themselves from Bush as much as they can.

A Mark Sanford makes sense because of geography--Sanford would be well-positioned to win in Iowa, and South Carolina. He's also a very capable governor and a strong conservative on things like government spending. This may be a big issue in 2012.

We really won't have to pay too much attention to this until 2011, but I wanted to get a preliminary list out there.