Palin: Conclusions

1. I stand by my allegations of "belief confirmation." This whole debate is positively rife with it.

2. Barack Obama has slightly more experience than Sarah Palin, and his experience makes him more qualified to be president than she is. I am unconvinced that there are any fine distinctions between the two that make him more qualified than his record shows. Not his eloquence, not the fact that he's taught constitutional law or majored in international relations, none of those things. Obama is more qualified for the presidency because he has a record on the national stage. Palin does not.

3. With that said, Obama is running for president. The "Obama has Biden as VP" argument is a valid argument to be used in voting FOR Obama. I do not think it's a valid argument to be used in voting AGAINST McCain/Palin; there is a failure to prioritize the roles of the executive branch positions, if a candidate's vice presidential pick is that influential. Their ticket is ordered correctly.

4. I don't know enough about Sarah Palin's philosophy on the federal government to want her to be president at this stage. State government is only a poor approximation of federal government; Calvin Coolidge supported child labor statutes as the governor of Massachusetts but believed in limiting federal power as president. Palin has supported massive surpluses and wealth redistribution in Alaska... but her state has a whole system and history of dispersing oil revenues. It is not, on its own, a strong enough record. When I envisioned Palin winning the GOP nomination in 2012, I believed she'd have a long slog of a campaign to put together an ideology about the presidency. As it is now, I know that Palin is strong on government ethics and doesn't mind rooting out corruption where she sees it. I do not know anything else, so it is difficult to support her as a politician any more than with strong reservations.

5. Palin is one of the national stage's most socially conservative politicians, but how much does she want federal power to enforce her beliefs? I have read no quotes indicating what Palin would do about critical social issues at the federal level if she were president. I don't know if she believes in stare decisis about Roe v. Wade, or if she would roll back alternative energy measures because she is not a true believer in global warming, etc.

6. I think there is a little bit of denigration of running a state out there right now, even a sparsely-populated one. The politics and power involved with running a state is far greater than any other organizational body, excepting perhaps a large city. County administrators, even if they have larger constituencies, do not have to deal with the same administrative responsibilities and government departments. And I'm fairly certain that Alaska's state government, for better or worse, has a lot of responsibility over money that local governments wouldn't even be able to fathom.

7. John McCain selected Sarah Palin for numerous reasons, not the least of which is because she is a woman. If I may speculate for a minute, I think that the following were all contributing factors in the selection:
- Palin's own "maverick" credentials probably appealed to McCain.
- As I wrote earlier, selecting Palin would signify a desire to put energy issues front and center in the campaign.
- I think that there's at least a little bit of press resentment from McCain, who was a media darling at one point in his life but has been trumped by Obama's eloquence. He knew that picking Palin would temper some of the perceived adulation of Obama.
- I imagine that McCain simply felt comfortable around the very down-to-Earth Palin. I think McCain is a bit hostile to money and people who make money moving money, so Romney was just anathema. The pro-life wing of the party would revolt if he picked someone pro-choice. And that left Palin and Pawlenty. Pawlenty's a safe pick, but safe doesn't win in a Democratic year.
- I don't think McCain was ever particularly comfortable making the "experience counts" case, even though it may well have been his best chance at winning the election.

8. The rest of this now falls on Palin's shoulders. She must deliver an effective, convincing speech on Wednesday convincing people that she's far more serious than her detractors (see: Maureen Dowd, Paul Begala) have made her out to be. She must also hold her own in a debate with Joe Biden and fend off some potentially-difficult or hostile questions from a media, which by then, no doubt, will be widely accused of going too easy on Palin. Her job: to make average voters feel comfortable with the idea of a mid-40s mother of five from Alaska in the White House. It's a tough sell, but it's not impossible.

And so, conclusion: I believe that the Sarah Palin selection was a high-stakes gamble by John McCain--a gamble about his health, about identity politics, and about the political and personal qualities of one Sarah Palin, first-term governor of Alaska. I do not, however, believe in the silly "Hail Mary pass" analogy put forth by members of the punditocracy. This has a much higher probability of success than a "Hail Mary pass." It's more akin to a "trick play": you get great benefits if everything works, but you lose big yardage (or even possession) if it doesn't.

Would I have recommended it? Probably not. Does it impact my voting decision? Not yet. I'm still reluctantly with McCain.