Thursday, March 6, 2008

Faulty Logic

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/tough_math_on_the_democratic_s.html

So how has Obama fared in those states that are the crucial building blocks of a Democratic general election strategy? He's won his home state of Illinois, plus Wisconsin, Washington and Minnesota. Together, these states account for 51 electoral votes. Clinton has won her home state of New York, as well as California, New Jersey and Michigan, representing a total of 118 electoral votes. This sum deliberately leaves out Ohio and Florida, which will be hotly contested in the fall. ...

The Democratic Party is indeed developing a general election problem, and it's only partly because Obama and Clinton will be sniping at one another for the next seven weeks. Obama, the leading candidate, still hasn't shown he has appeal in a large battleground state that will be pivotal in the fall. In this sense, Pennsylvania is where Obama's back, and not Clinton's, is up against the wall.


I reject this line of reasoning outright.

Obama will not be competing against Clinton in the general election. He will be competing against McCain. Ohio was perhaps Obama's greatest flop in this election. 66% of Ohio Democrats would be happy if he won the nomination. They will vote for him enthusiastically.

The parties will mobilize the necessary voters. Obama and Clinton have both proven capable of mobilizing voters. The fact that Obama is losing to Clinton in battleground states does NOT mean that he will not be able to capture that support in the general elections. In other words, something like "approval voting" would be ideal, here. It would paint a much different picture, too. "Oooh, 65% of Ohio Democrats approve of Obama as the nominee! They'll come out and vote for him!"

Throughout the campaign, Obama has turned out more Democrats than McCain has turned out Republicans. There was no party standard-bearer for the Republicans this year. The Democrats nominated a Clinton, for Christ's sake!

Let's not go crazy here with differences in support between the two candidates. Either Democrat would be a formidable foe for McCain in the general.

No comments:

Post a Comment