The Obama Range of Outcomes

PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' wonderful forecaster of baseball players, projects a value they call the "Beta" Number, which has to do with ranges of outcomes.

A Beta of 1.00 is average
A Beta above 1 means that there is a higher level of variance in potential outcomes.
A Beta below 1 means that there is a lower level of variance in potential outcomes.

Check out BP's definition of Beta, if you get a chance.

I love "range of outcomes" type questions. Really, the question is, what can Barack Obama become over the rest of his life? There are a few outcomes.

1. The Ted Kennedy Scenarios: Ted Kennedy, for various reasons, is a Democratic party legend. His own presidential ambitions were thwarted by Chappaquidick and his drinking, but he is still a Senator of enormous import. He also works as the convenient "liberal bogeyman" for the right. Anytime someone can be characterized as "to the left of Ted Kennedy," the Republicans have an advantage. Obama could become an influential Senate liberal and powerful speaker, but one who his party will not nominate to be president.

2. The Kingmaker Scenarios: This one is most likely if Obama serves one or two indistinguishable terms as president. I would classify Bill Clinton somewhere between 2 and 3 on my list of outcomes, for what it's worth. His inability to translate his support to his wife makes me think he's more of the "Kingmaker Plus." The Kingmaker, though, has the ability to shape a nomination or an election with the enthusiasm of the base behind him.

3. The Kingpin Scenarios: If Ronald Reagan hadn't developed Alzheimer's or had been younger, he would have been the prototypical Kingpin. Teddy Roosevelt had that kind of clout with Republicans until he splintered off. It's rare, simply because most popular presidents aren't as young as Obama is. Theoretically, Obama could win the presidency in 2008, transform the country positively in eight years, leave public life... and be just 55 years old. He could have three or four election cycles (all the way through until, say, 2032) where the Democrats pretty much do as he wishes. This sort of thing is almost unheard of in American politics. But Obama has a reasonable chance at it.

4. The wonk: Richard Nixon is the best example of this I can think of. He was considered a poor president, but he rehabilitated his reputation a bit by taking on an issue and mastering it. Nixon was a foreign policy wonk for the last 15-20 years of his life. I have read some of Nixon's foreign policy books, and they were enlightening and interesting. He was often wrong, but he was perceptive and influential. Obama might be the equivalent of this on something, down the line.

5. The longtime governor: There's a chance that Obama could be a modern-day Jim Rhodes, who served four terms as Ohio's governor. Obama is incredibly popular in Illinois, and he could have ambitions for the Illinois chief executive spot. If his presidential hopes are dashed by an electoral loss this year, I imagine he would shoot for the Illinois governorship in 2010, perhaps poised to return to the national stage for 2016 or 2020.

6. The washout? As I have written before, it is very difficult to lose a presidential election and come back stronger for it. Obama may "washout," if you will. It's hard to imagine him getting any higher than he is now, as far as a political force. Some scandal might derail his career, or he might simply decide that he is emotionally exhausted from a brutally grueling presidential campaign.
7. The Retry: Obama could hang around the Senate, regroup, and go for it again in 2012 or 2016, depending on who wins in 2008. I think Obama for Governor in 2010 is more likely, though.

So, what's Obama's beta? It's pretty high, I would say, probably around 1.10.